5 October 2026 · Behind the forecast

A model wave height offshore is the start of a forecast, not a measurement of breaking surf at your beach.

BestSwell reads saved hourly predictions from our Python forecasting engine. Available wave and wind models provide inputs; local beach profiles and the engine’s calculations translate those inputs into estimated breaking surf and quality scores. The website displays those saved results rather than making a new upstream request every time someone opens a beach.

Several models, visible differences

Inputs may include Met Office AMM15 through Copernicus Marine, ECMWF WAM and DWD EWAM for waves, alongside Met Office UKV, ECMWF IFS and DWD ICON Europe weather data through Open-Meteo. The contributing models vary by location and hour. Only recorded inputs are shown in the model comparison.

When models disagree, their spread is useful information. Forecast confidence and model agreement are shown separately from surf quality: a high quality score can still have uncertain supporting evidence.

Coastal measurements as a check

Available Channel Coastal Observatory and Marine Institute buoy observations provide another reference. The forecast shows the source, distance and measurement time. A buoy measures conditions at its own position, so its offshore reading is not automatically a beach-level wave height. A current observation cannot validate a future hour.

What the score tells you

The general /100 score displays the engine’s existing 0–10 rating multiplied by ten. Wave size, period, wind, tide and chop contribute where recorded. This presentation does not create extra prediction precision. Your optional surf profile applies a separate preference adjustment.

Use the evidence before you go

Check the forecast timestamp, model agreement, selected hour and any available observations. Missing data stays missing. Conditions can change and models do not resolve every sandbank, headland or hazard; recheck at the beach and use local advice.

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